個(gè)人理財(cái)，一定要懂得多樣化
個(gè)人理財(cái)，一定要懂得多樣化
個(gè)人理財(cái)是指客戶根據(jù)自身生涯規(guī)劃、財(cái)務(wù)狀況和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)屬性，制定理財(cái)目標(biāo)和理財(cái)規(guī)劃，執(zhí)行理財(cái)規(guī)劃，實(shí)現(xiàn)理財(cái)目標(biāo)。那怎你對(duì)個(gè)人理財(cái)有什么規(guī)劃了?下面是小編為您收集整理的個(gè)人理財(cái)，一定要懂得多樣化，供大家參考!
個(gè)人理財(cái)，一定要懂得多樣化
Diversify, Especially If You Don't Know What You Are Doing!
一定要保持多樣化，尤其是在你不知道自己在做什么時(shí)!
In the words of famed e conomist John Maynard Keynes, diversification is insurance against ignorance.
著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家John Maynard Keynes說過多樣化是戰(zhàn)勝無知的保證。
He believed that risk could actually be reduced by holding fewer investments and getting to know them extraordinarily well.
他相信少做幾種投資并且非常了解這些投資真的能降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
Of course, the man was one of the most brilliant financial minds of the past century so this philosophy isn’t sound policy for most investors, especially if they can’t analyze financial statements or don’t know the difference between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a Dodo.
當(dāng)然他是過去一個(gè)世紀(jì)中最杰出的金融人才之一，所以這種說法對(duì)于大多數(shù)投資者來說聽起來并不是明智的選擇，尤其是有些人并不能分析財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表或不知道道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)和Dodo之間差別。
These days, widespread diversification can be had at a fraction of the cost of what was possible even a few decades ago. With index funds, mutual funds, and dividend reinvestment programs, the frictional expenses of owning shares in hundreds of different companies have largely been eliminated or, at the very least, substantially reduced.
現(xiàn)在即使只賺到幾十年前能賺到的錢數(shù)你就能利用日益普遍的多樣化的方法。隨著指數(shù)基金、共同基金和股息再投資計(jì)劃的興起，擁有數(shù)百家不同公司股份的摩擦費(fèi)用已經(jīng)被大大消除了，或者至少大幅下降了。
This can help protect you against permanent loss by spreading your assets out over enough companies that if one or even a few of them go belly-up, you won’t be harmed.
這可以保護(hù)你免受不可逆的損失，把你的資產(chǎn)分散到足夠多的公司中，如果其中一家甚至幾家公司破產(chǎn)，你也不會(huì)遭受損失。
In fact, due to a phenomenon is known as the mathematics of diversification, it will probably result in higher overall compounding returns on a risk-adjusted basis.
其實(shí)由于多樣化數(shù)學(xué)現(xiàn)象的存在，很有可能會(huì)在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)整的基礎(chǔ)上產(chǎn)生更高的綜合復(fù)利。
One thing you want to watch for is correlation. Specifically, you want to look for uncorrelated risks so that your holdings are constantly offsetting each other to even out economic and business cycles.
你要注意的就是關(guān)聯(lián)問題，具體來說就是你想要找到?jīng)]有關(guān)聯(lián)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以便你所持的股票總能彼此補(bǔ)償，在經(jīng)濟(jì)和商業(yè)周期內(nèi)持平。
When I first wrote the predecessor to this piece almost fifteen years ago, I warned that it wasn't enough to own thirty different stocks if half of them consisted of Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bank, Fifth Third Bancorp, et cetera, because you may have owned a lot of shares in several different companies but you were not diversified; that a "systematic shock such as massive real estate loan failure could send shockwaves through the banking system, effectively hurting all of your positions", which is precisely what happened during the 2007-2009 collapse.
差不多在15年前我第一次寫下這個(gè)方法的上一個(gè)版本時(shí)就警告過，如果你持有的股票中有一半是美洲銀行、摩根大通、富國銀行、美國合眾銀行、五三銀行這樣的股票的話，那你擁有30家不同的股票都不夠，因?yàn)槟憧赡茉诓煌墓緭碛写罅抗煞荩]有做到多樣化，而且像大規(guī)模房地產(chǎn)貸款失敗這樣的系統(tǒng)沖擊會(huì)給整個(gè)銀行系統(tǒng)帶來沖擊，實(shí)際上你所有的股票都會(huì)遭受損失，2007-2009年金融危機(jī)期間就發(fā)生了這樣的事。
Of course, the stronger firms such as U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo & Company did just fine despite a period when they had declined 80% on paper peak-to-trough, especially if you reinvested your dividends and were dollar cost averaging into them; a reminder that it's often better to focus on strength first and foremost.
當(dāng)然美國合眾銀行和富國銀行這樣更強(qiáng)一些的公司，也有過從表面上看從高峰期到低谷期下跌了80%的時(shí)期。但尤其是當(dāng)你要重新投資股利并按購入證券的美元價(jià)格平均計(jì)算時(shí)，它們確實(shí)是不錯(cuò)的選擇。還要提醒你一下，最好首要關(guān)注一下公司實(shí)力。
Behavioral economics, on the other hand, has proven most people are emotionally incapable of focusing on the underlying business, instead of panicking and liquidating at the least opportune moment.
而另一方面，行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)證明，在情感上，大多數(shù)人很難做到只關(guān)注基礎(chǔ)業(yè)務(wù)而不在最不合適時(shí)慌張拋售。
But beside all these, just remember: Stick to Stocks Within Your "Circle of Competence"
但除了這些之外，你只需記得：堅(jiān)持買你“能力范圍內(nèi)”的股票。
In investing, as in life, success is just as much about avoiding mistakes as it is about making intelligent decisions.
投資就像生活一樣，成功在于盡可能避免犯錯(cuò)，也在于做出明智的決定。
If you are a scientist who works at Pfizer, you are going to have a very strong competitive advantage in determining the relative attractiveness of pharmaceutical stocks compared to someone who works in the oil sector.
如果你是輝瑞公司的一名科學(xué)家，在確定制藥股票的相對(duì)吸引力方面你就要比石油行業(yè)的人擁有很強(qiáng)的競爭優(yōu)勢。
Likewise, a person in the oil sector is going to probably have a much bigger advantage over you in understanding the oil majors than you are.
同樣，石油行業(yè)的人在對(duì)大型石油公司的了解上就比你有更大的優(yōu)勢。
Peter Lynch was a big proponent of the “invest in what you know” philosophy.
Peter Lynch就非常支持“投資你所了解的行業(yè)”這一說法。
In fact, many of his most successful investments were a result of following his wife and teenage kids around the shopping mall or driving through town eating Dunkin’ Doughnuts.
其實(shí)他最成功的一些投資都是受了妻子和商場附近青少年的啟發(fā)，或開車橫穿城市去Dunkin’ Doughnuts吃飯時(shí)產(chǎn)生的。
There is a legendary story in old-school value investing circles about a man who became such an expert in American water companies that he literally knew the profit in a tub full of bathwater or the average toilet flush, building a fortune by trading a specific stock.
老派價(jià)值投資法中有一個(gè)傳奇的故事，說的是一個(gè)人在美國自來水公司成為了專家，毫不夸張地說他能知道裝滿水的浴缸或普通馬桶刷的利潤，他通過交易一只特定的股票就賺了一大筆錢。
One caveat: You must be honest with yourself. Just because you worked the counter at Chicken Mary's as a teenager doesn't mean you are automatically going to have an advantage when analyzing a poultry company like Tyson Chicken.
警告：你必須要對(duì)自己誠實(shí)。僅僅是十多歲時(shí)在Chicken Mary's站過柜臺(tái)并不意味著在分析Tyson Chicken這樣的家禽公司時(shí)你就有優(yōu)勢了。
A good test is to ask yourself if you know enough about a given industry to take over a business in that field and be successful. If the answer is "yes", you may have found your niche. If not, keep studying.
一個(gè)很好的測試方法就是問問自己是否對(duì)某一行業(yè)足夠了解，能在那個(gè)領(lǐng)域接管一家公司還能做得成功。如果答案是肯定的，那你可能發(fā)現(xiàn)了商機(jī);如果不行那就繼續(xù)學(xué)習(xí)吧。
通貨膨脹讓民眾和企業(yè)損失了什么
In general, people seem to know that inflation is often not a good thing in an economy. This makes sense, to some degree- inflation refers to rising prices, and rising prices are typically viewed as a bad thing.
總體來說，人們似乎知道通貨膨脹對(duì)一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說通常不是什么好事。這是情理之中的事，在一定程度上，通貨膨脹就意味著物價(jià)上漲，而物價(jià)上漲一般都被視為壞事。
Technically speaking, however, increases in the aggregate price level need not be particularly problematic if prices of different goods and services rise uniformly, if wages rise in tandem with the price increases, and if nominal interest rates adjust in response to changes in inflation. (In other words, inflation need not reduce the real purchasing power of consumers.)
從技術(shù)上講，如果所有商品和服務(wù)的價(jià)格都以統(tǒng)一的幅度上漲，如果工資水平也隨著物價(jià)一起上漲，并且如果名義利率也跟隨通貨膨脹進(jìn)行調(diào)整，那綜合物價(jià)的上漲就不太會(huì)是個(gè)問題。(換句話說，這種情況下通貨膨脹并沒有削弱消費(fèi)者的購買力。)
There are, however, costs of inflation that are relevant from an economic perspective and cannot be easily avoided.
不過，從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的角度看，通貨膨脹還是會(huì)帶來些很明顯的成本，而且這些成本無法輕易避免。
Menu Costs
菜單成本
When prices are constant over long periods of time, firms benefit in that they don't need to worry about changing the prices for their output.
如果物價(jià)在很長一段時(shí)間內(nèi)保持穩(wěn)定，那么企業(yè)是獲益的，因?yàn)樗麄儾恍枰淖冏约寒a(chǎn)品的售價(jià)。
When prices change over time, on the other hand, firms would ideally like to change their prices in order to keep pace with the general trends in prices, since this would be the profit-maximizing strategy.
而如果物價(jià)隨時(shí)間變動(dòng)了，企業(yè)當(dāng)然就會(huì)想跟隨總趨勢來提高自己產(chǎn)品的售價(jià)，畢竟這是能讓利潤最大化的策略。
Unfortunately, changing prices is generally not costless, since changing prices requires printing new menus, relabeling items, and so on.
不幸的是，更改價(jià)格通常不是沒有成本的，因?yàn)橐膬r(jià)格需要重印菜單、重新貼標(biāo)等等。
Firms have to decide whether to operate at a price that is not profit-maximizing or incur the menu costs involved in changing prices.
企業(yè)必須決定是繼續(xù)使用不能使利潤最大化的老價(jià)格，還是承受更改價(jià)格帶來的菜單成本。
Either way, firms bear a very real cost of inflation.
不管選哪個(gè)，企業(yè)都需要為通貨膨脹承受貨真價(jià)實(shí)的損失。
Shoeleather Costs
“皮鞋成本”
The term shoe leather costs refer to the figurative cost of replacing shoes more often due to the increase in the number of trips to the bank, but shoe leather costs are a very real phenomenon.
皮鞋成本這個(gè)說法是在比喻你由于頻繁往返銀行磨壞了鞋之后需要付出的置裝費(fèi)，雖然名字是一種比喻，但這個(gè)成本卻是真真切切存在的。
Shoeleather costs are not a serious issue in economies with relatively low inflation, but they become very relevant in economies that experience hyperinflation. In these situations, citizens generally prefer to keep their assets as foreign rather than local currency, which also consumes unnecessary time and effort.
皮鞋成本在通貨膨脹較低的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中通常不是一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，但它在那些經(jīng)歷惡性通貨膨脹的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中就很明顯了。在這種情況下，公民們通常更愿意持有外匯而不是本地貨幣，而這就又要消耗不必要的時(shí)間和精力。
Whereas firms are the ones who directly incur menu costs, shoe leather costs directly impact all holders of currency.
就像企業(yè)會(huì)直接承受菜單成本一樣，貨幣的所有持有者則要直接承受皮鞋成本。
When inflation is present, there is a real cost to holding cash (or holding assets in non-interest bearing deposit accounts), since the cash won't buy as much tomorrow as it could today.
如果你持有的是現(xiàn)金，或者持有無利息的存款賬戶，那么當(dāng)通貨膨脹來臨的時(shí)候你就會(huì)承受一些損失，因?yàn)槟愕腻X明天能買到的東西已經(jīng)比今天少了。
Therefore, citizens have an incentive to keep as little cash on hand as possible, which means that they have to go to the ATM or otherwise transfer money on a very frequent basis.
因此，民眾通常傾向于盡量少持有現(xiàn)金，這意味著他們必須非常頻繁地通過ATM機(jī)或其他方法來存取金錢。
Misallocation of Resources
資源誤置
When inflation occurs and prices of different goods and services rise at different rates, some goods and services become cheaper or more expensive in a relative sense.
當(dāng)通貨膨脹發(fā)生但不同的商品和服務(wù)的價(jià)格上升幅度卻不一樣時(shí)，這些商品和服務(wù)就相對(duì)地變得更貴或者更便宜了。
These relative price distortions, in turn, affect the allocation of resources toward different goods and services in a way that would not happen if relative prices remained stable.
這種價(jià)格上的相對(duì)扭曲會(huì)影響資源在不同商品和服務(wù)上的配置，而這種問題在相對(duì)價(jià)格穩(wěn)定的情況下就不會(huì)出現(xiàn)。
Wealth Redistribution
財(cái)富再分配
Unexpected inflation can serve to redistribute wealth in an economy because not all investments and debt are indexed to inflation.
意料之外的通貨膨脹可以對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中的財(cái)富進(jìn)行再分配，因?yàn)椴⒉皇撬械耐顿Y和債務(wù)都會(huì)跟隨通貨膨脹一起變動(dòng)。
Higher than expected inflation makes the value of debt lower in real terms, but it also makes the real returns on assets lower.
比預(yù)期更高的通貨膨脹會(huì)讓實(shí)際債務(wù)變低，但也會(huì)讓資本的實(shí)際回報(bào)率變低。
Therefore, unexpected inflation serves to hurt investors and benefit those who have a lot of debt.
因此，意料之外的通貨膨脹會(huì)傷害投資者，但對(duì)那些負(fù)債者卻是有利的。
This is likely not an incentive that policymakers want to create in an economy, so it can be viewed as another cost of inflation.
這通常不是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的政策制定者想看到的現(xiàn)象，所以我們也可以把這視為通貨膨脹的另一種成本。
Tax Distortions
稅收扭曲
In the United States, there are many taxes that do not automatically adjust for inflation.
在美國，有很多稅并不是自動(dòng)跟隨通貨膨脹變動(dòng)的。
For example, capital gains taxes are calculated based on the absolute increase in the value of an asset, not on the inflation-adjusted value increase.
比如，資本利得稅是按資本的絕對(duì)增值來算的，而不是按照根據(jù)通貨膨脹調(diào)整后的價(jià)值來算的。
Therefore, the effective tax rate on capital gains when inflation is present may be much higher than the stated nominal rate.
因此，當(dāng)通貨膨脹發(fā)生的時(shí)候，實(shí)際的資本利得稅率可能比名義上的要高。
Similarly, inflation increases the effective tax rate paid on interest income.
同樣地，通貨膨脹也會(huì)提高利息稅的實(shí)際稅率。
General Inconvenience
整體上的不便
Even if prices and wages are flexible enough to adjust well for inflation, inflation still makes comparisons of monetary quantities across years more difficult than they could be.
即便物價(jià)和工資都能靈活地根據(jù)通貨膨脹進(jìn)行調(diào)整，通貨膨脹還是會(huì)讓對(duì)比不同年份的金錢價(jià)值變得更困難。
Given that people and companies would like to fully understand how their wages, assets, and debt evolve over time, the fact that inflation makes it more difficult to do so can be viewed as yet another cost of inflation.
由于企業(yè)與個(gè)人都想更好地了解自己的工資、財(cái)產(chǎn)和債務(wù)變動(dòng)情況，那通貨膨脹的這種作用就能被視為另一種成本了。